Real Estate Information Archive

Each year our Mortgage Partner and Certified Mortgage Planner with Pulaski Bank of St. Louis, Chris Simms, provides his predictions for us agents.  We just happen to be Mom and Dad so we can sit on him a bit if they waiver too much but we figured you would appreciate some of his thoughts in his Crystal Ball for 2009.

Chris wrote:

I hope you all had great Christmas and a Happpy New Year!

Ok, it's that time again for my annual Crystal Ball.  It's long and it's lengthy but its all good so please read up.

Last Year - I didn't do too bad - Ok, I missed rates not getting back to 5.25% in February after the little hit in January but they did get there by the end of November.  The realestate market slowed as we expected and lending got even tighter and harder to place loans.  Self employed and stated income loans are non existent.  If you can't prove you make money then you can't get a loan and in some cases even if you can prove you make money then you can't get a loan.  Lending has gone back to good jobs, ood income, good debt management, grat credit, and you need a down payment.  In all honesty it needed to get back to the basics.  So what lies ahead?

$ Rates - I could go on for days about this but I'm going to try to keep it short  Here is what has happened and what lies ahead.  In november the Fed confirmed that it was going to begin buying Mortgage backed securities 9MBS).  It didn't appear likely util Dec 17 (dooms day for mortgage professionals) when they again confirmed but could not give a time ine but just said "soon".  That drove rates fom 5.5% to 4.75% in a matter of seconds and then the mortgage back security market saidwai a minute they just said "Soon" not tomorrow.  Lock deks around the country froze up and investors stopped buying paper that day.  Since then investorsfizzles, took some profits and ratesjumped back up to 5.25%.  Then today the Fed actually began buying MBSs.  How much, we won't know until Thursday.  The Fed has appointed 6 ifferent companies to manage the purchase of MBS over the next 6 months.  They have 500 billlion at their disosal to do so.  So how is this going to work you ask?  The Fed is going to sloly purchase MBS, hoping investor sentiment will follow suit.  Investors will hopefully buy knowing that the fed is going to buy and driv bond prices on MBS higher (rates lower, inverse relationship).  The Fed is hopig that just a little at the begining will be enough to allow the market to do the rest.  The gol rates between 4.5% to 4%.  There is talk of less than 4% but that is pretty pricy and investors would be paying quite the premium for that price.  The Fed then hopes they can play a larger part of trying to protect th prices by buying when investors are trying to sell.  This will help provide some price stability and keep rates more constant and ot as volatile.  Will that happen, your guss is as good as mine.  Several factors will have to occur for that to happen.   1) economy needs to continue to weaken.  Jobsneed to continue to get worse and stocks need to be a bad bet.  2.)  Mortgage investors need to feel confident that they are goig to get their profits out of this  dal.  3.) the Fed has to control inflation.  As the market continues to weaken and the Fed continues to print money at its own discretion there is a huge potential for inflation.  Note:  Study the Japanese market for the past 15 years.  If inflation begins to be a big worry because the fed has printed to mucvh money and the money isnt worth as mucvh as it was supposed o be, then investors will dup out of bonds and it won't matter how much the fed has because the money won't be worth anything.  (see the dilemma).  We do expect themarket to continue to weaen and jobless claims to continue to rise.  That will hurt the economy but the infrastructure plans that Obamahas proposed is a good idea.  If you create jobs and industry, then people will have money to buy things.  So his plan does make sense and will help the economy if inflation remains under control.  Again if it doesn't then it doesn't matter that you have a job paying $20 an hour because $20 wonn't buy anything.  Stock market rise is possible by year end but not huge and will remain volatile through the second and possibly third quarters.  Following that there could be a good rise for the US economyto see stronger signs sooner.  Several factors will play into that including lower mortgage rates.  Rates will get lower.  I am predicting 4's.  There is a possibility ofhigh 3's but not hugely llikely and probably not for a period of time, but with the volatility we have had and the way this market has been for the past 16 months, I wouldn't put it past the market to try.  So what should you do as far as refinancing?  First, if you just refinanced are are below 5.5, hold off.  Let the market show some benefits before you go to jump iin again.  If you haven't yeet then I would recommend looking to take a 30 year at 4.75% and a 15 at 4.5%.  That should be possible in the next few weeks with the way today occurred.  If rates do go considerably lower then it won't be until the middle to the end of the cycle (May or Jun) by all indications.  By that time you could refinance again if it would make ense paymet wise.  As for covering closing costs, investorshave not been paying a premium for rates.  They are selling at the bare minimum the market will sustain because they are fearful of rates going lower and you refinaning again meaning they loose their money they were epecting to get over 30 years.  If you refinance in 3 months.  That's why we tell you, you an't refinance until 90 - 120 days has passed since your first payment.  They will keep ou from getting lower rates if theycan't make any money (even if the bond market is lower, its about profit).  So being able to cover closing costs has been extremely hard being we aren't getting any to do so with.  So if you haven't refinanced and would like to gurantee 4.75%  give mea call.  If you want to gamble ok.  If you have just refinanced, it is worth the gamble if youa re below 5.5.

Real Estate -  With rates going down we will see some activity  In all honesty with rates where they are, the tax credits, and prices where they are we will actually see a lot of activity.  Will we get to numbers like in 2004 and 2005?  Probably not just because the loans are harder to get and jobs could be an issue.  But those that will qualify will be looking to move.  This will probably be the year of all years to get the real estate deal of a lifetime!  As for selling, with the increased activity and curiosity it will be good for listings.  The difficult part will be the buyers trying to push for the deal of a lifetime.  Remember 98% of the population buys on emotion.  That means if they will probably buy because the paymets will make sense.  This should cause a good pop in values.  Not huge, just good.  With gas being down you could see Warrento, Lincoln, Franklin, and Jefferson counties pick up as well.  i wouldn't hold on to that though.  We do expect gas prices to steadily go back up.  (they have to in order for the oil companies to continue getting richer.  They like that and we can't do anything about it because we won't drill in the ANMAR province or off shore).  Needless to say oil prices towards the summer could begin to get back into the high 2's low 3's.  This will also allow for harder drilling and exploration to be worth while.  Now is the time to buy. Agents I don't plan on sleeping this year, neither should you. 

Everyone have a great year and God Bless

If you would like to contact Chris regarding your mortgage planning he can be reached at 314-2294242 or by e-mail at csimms@pulaskibankstl.com.  For information on selling a home call us at 314-749-0921 or register at www.StCharlesMarketValues.com for an analysis of the value of your home.  Your home does not need to be located in St. Charles just the St. Louis Metropolitan area.  If you are looking for a home you may register a search here on our Trails2OpenSpaces.com website by clicking on New Listing Alerts and completing your registration. 

Chris Simms, Certified Mortgage Planner had this to say about today's rates in the market:

Rates right now are holding steady at 6^.  I know its not the news you wanted.  But I might have some good news!

Here's the What, Why and How!

What:  Simply investors are nervous.  They aren't sure what "is" a safe investment any more.  No financial institution seems to be worth a dime.  Insurance is no better either (Case in Point AIG the nation's largest insurer).  Stocks can't make heads or tails, besides who says what they are reporting is accurate anyway?  Not to mention its notlike they have to be accurate because if they fail the government will just pick them back up again.  so its got to be putting it in cash, right?  No not exactly.  Besides putting it under your mattress (which you can't do because if your house burns down its gone and how do you know the insurance company will be able to pay out anyway, won't work. 

You can't put it into a money market fund because you aren't sure if that will be safe either.  Besides will the financial institution holding it be safe?  What about bonds and treasuries?  Well as of last Friday Lehman was still an A rated bond.  On Monday they were worth just about nothing.  So our ratings system doesn't see to work either.  Ok treasuries have to be the way to go.  No not really because the yields on treasuries ran negative yesterday, meaning that the cost of the bond was so high that the interest you would receive wouldn't make up for the additional cost, but its guaranteed.  so what do we have left to invest in?  real Estate.  What, did you say the "R" Word?  Yup!  And here is why.  Real Estate is the only investment that you can still buy (and understand) buy declines have been very minimal compared to the rest of the country.  Most of our declines have come from foreclosures and new construction.  Does that mean your house won't depreciate, no but it does mean that we have mush less risk here in St. Louis.  so lets look at the numbers.

You buy a $100K house in Overland (3bed, 1 bath, 1,000 sq ft).  You put down 20% and get a 30 yr fix rate at 6.75% (a great rate considering).  That brings your total payment (Principal, Interest, Taxes and Insurance) to $693 per month.  Lets just say $700.  You can rent it out for $1,000 per month.  That means you get $300 per month in positive cash flow.  That is $3,600 per year in Cash flow.  That is an 18% return annually on your 20K investment.  The best part is I haven't taken into account the tax benefits of writing off the interest, taxes, insurance, and should you choose depreciation.  Oh and the best part is that if you want to you can sell it in 5 years and expect to at the worst get your money back for it.  But what happens if at the end of five years the value went up 6% or $6K?  With my total investment of $20K, my annual return of $3,600 over 5 years for $18,000 plus not $6,000 in appreciation yielding a total return of 24K for a 20K investment.  That's a 120% return on your money in 5 years.  Wow

Again, this is hypothetical and I have left some additional advantages out.  With anything you can buy a property that is a lemon and loose your . . . . , that's where a great agent and building inspector come in, all of whom the seller will pay for you.

To wrap up, this is a great time to pick up an inexpensive investment with great returns and potential.  Like all things it has to be done right and the property has to be good.

For questions or additional information contact Chris at 314-229-4242 or csimms@pulaskibankstl.com.

The Simms Team has experience working with investors on all types of properties to meet their investment needs.  You may register for a property search 24/7 by logging on to www.StCharlesHomeHunter.com or by e-mailing us at MikeandPat@Trails2OpenSpaces.com.  Our websites search homes in the great St. Louis area including, St. Louis, St. Louis County, St. Charles, Lincoln, Warren, Jefferson counties and more. 

Keeping up on the market on a daily basis is key to our business.  It is how we customize our marketing plans for eac h and every seller.  When looking at the statistics for 2nd Quarter 2008 versus 2nd Quarter 2007 we found some very interesting information. 

In St. Louis County  there were 3,480 less homes on the market in 2nd Quarater 2008 than there were in 2007.  However agents only sold 358 less homes with 3,399 selling in 2nd Quarter 2007 and 3,041 in 2nd Quarter 2008 per the Mid America Regional Infomation System.

In St. Charles County there were 2,046 less homes on the market in 2nd Quarter 2008 than there were in the same time period in 2007.  The selling rate decreased 10% which was the equivalent of 127 homes. 

Third quarter data is not yet available however the multi listing system shows there are 2,644 active homes on the market in St. Charles County and 6,883 active homes in St. Louis County.

This information demonstrates that life events continue to happen, people get married, have children, loose loved ones which cause them to make a housing change.  We help sellers prepare their homes to sell in this market every day.  We are currently scheduling interviews for additional listings.  Call or e-mail to schedule an appointment.

The Simms Team

Specializing in New Construction, Custom, and Country Homes

Yesterday, Chris Simms, Certified Mortgage Planner with Pulaski Bank of St. Louis, had this to say about the market:

Rates are at 6% on a 30 year fixed.  They jumped today even though the news has been hugely bond friendly.  Investors are feaful that the US govt is writing checks it can't cash.  Beng the US decided overnight to bail out AIG with an 85 billion dollar loan, people are a little nervous. An f your Lehman, you really have to be upseet.  Needless to say, investors are pulling their money out of the stock market and keeping it in Cash.

As of yesterday afternoon, we saw a sight surge back into mortgage bonds.  This will help with pricing today but we do feel this roller coaster is going to continue.

If you are wanting 5%, it could happen but you are taking a huge gamble.  Look at your situation and what numbers make sense.  Review this with your Mortgage Advisor.  If 5.75% appears it is a goodtime to consider to lock.  If you want 5.5% it may get there it may not.  I have a huge lilst of clients who were waiting for 5.5% and now think its going to 5.25%.  They missedd the boat the last time when it was at 5.75%.  B now they would have saved an average of $1,000 by taking the 5.75 back in February.  Buyers and those refinancing really need to weigh what makes sense.

For questions or additional information you may contact Chris at 314.229.4242 or by e-mail at csimms@pulaskibankstl.com.  

Chris Simms, Certified Mortgage Planner, with Preferred Home Lending Powered by Pulaski Bank of St. Louis had this to say about the market:

Yesterday we saw the price of oil dip down below its 200 day moving average.  While this should have been good news for stocks, bonds, and mortgage backed securities, the European Union saw a contraction in their economy.  Because so many U.S. companies are tied to European markets, stocks lost quite a bit of momentum.  This negative reading on foreign markets shrinking and the cost of oil decreasing provided some good news for mortgage backed securities and the bond market. 

Why?  The cost of oil going down lowers the overall concern for inflation (cost of goods rising), because inflation is the kiss of death for bonds and mortgage backed securities.  This good news on oil makes the day for bond traders.  To add to it, weakness in the market pace requires investors to look for areas of safety for their investments.  Bonds and mortgage backed securities are considered safe havens for investments as they provide a set rate of return. 

Ok so bonds are doing better, what does this mean for mortage rates?  They are down.  right now we have the 30yr at 6.375% and the FHA 30yr at 6.125% on 30 day locks.  so rates have fallen. 

Will they remain lower?  That will depend on two factors.  One if the oil prices stay elow the 200 day moving average and what the the beige book report states this afternoon.  The beige book is the FOMC meeting notes from their last meeting which details out the state of the economy and the feelings each Fed press had on those numbers.  If traders like the comments from the beige book and oil stays low it will help to control prices.  The only other concern will be the demand from stocks.  If stocks pick up steam from the beige book because traders feel the economy is strengthening, then they could pull money from bonds.

So for now enjoy the lower rates.  I'll keep you posted.

Chris may be contacted for questions or comments by e-mail at csimms@pulaskibankstl.com or by phone at 314.229.4242.